Political Oo – because by nature, man is a political animal

2023: I’m not Obidient, but Voting Peter Obi is the Clear and Obvious Choice

Thoughts on Tinubu, Obi et al and the Nigerian 2023 Presidential elections.

Alas, another election is here, and as I’ve done since 2011, I will be writing about the choice of my candidate. As the title depicts, my choice has been made, I support and will be voting for Peter Obi, the candidate of the Labour Party.. However, I am writing this post for one main reason, to keep a record of my thoughts in the present. As a 2015 Buhari voter (you can say Buharist), I documented my thoughts then, and I understand very clearly why I took the position I did. On occasions when I want to feel foolish, I re-read it, and I understand my position.

I’ll start by saying I do not fancy “popular democracy.” This quote “I’m all in favor of the democratic principle that one idiot is as good as one genius, but I draw the line when someone takes the next step and concludes that two idiots are better than one genius.” ― Leo Szilard

However, it is what we’ve accepted as a nation. And at this moment, it is the process we have decided to utilize to choose our government. The first thing one must accept is you can only choose a president from those that are on the ballot.

Secondly, within reason, if your interest is in choosing the next president (or influencing governance) and not in merely participating, then your choices are narrowed to those who are rationally able to either win or impact the race. In cases where none of this applies, you sit it out. I did just that in 2019.

With the above in mind, my choices are limited to these political parties and their candidates – Tinubu of APC, Atiku of the PDP, and Obi of Labour. It was previously 4, however, Kwankwaso showed he was not serious about the presidency by taking the choice of a running mate too literally. The guy he chose has run away!

How I view(ed) the Candidates.

APC + Tinubu.

“Emi lo kan – It’s my turn”

Despite the gross failure of the APC in the last 8 years, before the primaries, it wasn’t certain I would not be voting for the APC. Had they chosen Yemi “BDSM” – “his hands are tied” Osinbajo as their candidate, they would have had a chance with my vote (it was dependent on PDP not choosing Obi). Alas the PDP chose Atiku and APC, Bola Tinubu. I looked with trepidation at sitting 2023 out yet again as I did in 2019, then Obi reappeared from nowhere.

Tinubu as President is such an unpalatable option. No doubt a masterful politician has put in the work, and having a man with not only a chequered past but also a present as president was a clear non-starter for me. As if that is enough, the Tinubu being offered wasn’t that of 2007 but of 2023 with clearly physical and mental degradation. But that wasn’t enough, they chose Shettima, a person whose relationship with a terror group was being debated, as a running mate.

There is this argument about what Tinubu achieved between 1999-2007 But it falls flat for two main reasons. First, he is no longer as healthy and agile as he was 16 years ago. And most importantly, the team he had around him is no longer available. Fashola, Osinbajo, Ben Akabueze, etc who were core think tanks have given way to Ayiri, MC Oluomo, and Dokubo. I think something happened to him after putting in Fashola and he swore off brains and doubled down in brawn.

You cannot decide to take Kanu to play football for Nigeria at the next Olympics because of his 1996 exploits. And worse still, he would be teaming up with the guys you play dribble to score with. When it became clear that the dregs of intellect were the new key players in his team was doing the Bishop debacle. Even a 3rd tier skit maker would have delivered better.

The most interesting thing is the fact, Tinubu’s Lagos is at best, is a sophisticated slum that is the best of the worst we have around in Nigeria. I remember my tribute on his birthday a few years ago.

“Bola Ahmed Tinubu has presided over Lagos for 20 years welding unprecedented TOTAL and ABSOLUTE political control over the best-resourced Nigerians in every parameter. THE JAGABAN

As of 1999 when he came into power, he had the best representation of a blank canvas with the area encompassing VI Extension (Ligali Ayorinde) to Songotedo. For two decades he’s had the unique chance and unhindered time to showcase his masterpiece – the Bola Tinubu vision of a city and standard for his people.

A few good spluttering starts placed him ahead of his peers – BRT, LAWMA, and LAMATA.

But looking back the substance of the result is clear.

The sprawl of the unplanned sophisticated slum we have from Oniru to Songotedo and beyond is the manifestation of bottom-pot mediocrity – zero public hospitals, water, schools, post office, zero standard planned and numbered houses, roads, and areas. Zero zoning or building codes. Etc

In the human capital area, Tinubu’s 20 years of absolute control has spurned a generation of illiterate thugs and bandits in power – his legacy to the people.

May your atrocious legacy disappear like the water used to make Eba.“

Labour + Obi + Obidients

“I am not running for president, you are running for president through me”

From the left flank came Peter Obi the notoriously frugal governor of Anambra state. If I am being honest, I haven’t always been a fan of Obi for the primary reason of him abandoning APGA immediately after he completed his tenure. And I held him very responsible for the rise of Willy Obiano as his successor. In addition, I wasn’t a great fan of his tenure as it seemed to focus too much on the theoretical activities as governor. Over-indexing on plans and savings vs execution. In addition, it seems to me he is not a systemic person and depends too much on himself to get it done (as governor, to combat fraud, he was purchasing fuel for his convoy by himself)

But, because he had remained politically engaged, and comparing his crime of frugality of state resources with that of a candidate with an unknown past (with a sprinkle of drug trade) and present (spiced with poor health) and another notoriously corrupt candidate who checks out every election, chasing Peter Obi far head of the alternatives was an obvious choice.

As the campaign season went on, I became more enthralled with his work ethic on full display. I had thought Tinubu pre presidential primaries did a lot of work but Obi’s campaign runs have put Kanye and Cafu to shame.

But to be honest, what swung me assuredly to Obi’s side was “the Obidients.” A core group of coconut head Gen Z fold that decided to take their political future into their hands. Though moving with a lot of vitriol at anything that seemingly criticised their chosen candidate, I understood and still understand the anger. I state I am not Obidient simply because Buhari is the last politician I’ll bat for without looking back. The disappointment robbed me of the joy of believing. But water the outcome – Obi wins, Tinibu loses or Atiku gets disqualified, they would be the people of the election. 4 people turned into many millions in the street. If that is not a miracle of God, what then can we call this?

PDP + Atiku

“PDP! Power!”

Voting for a PDP candidate running for any position has always been a default no from me courtesy of the party’s DNA sprawling from being a bastion of incompetence to brazen corruption and negligence of the rule of law. However, Bola Ahmed Tinubu being the credible alternative made them worthy of consideration. But they went against their principle of rotations and chose an Atiku. The first issue with that was his region, being from the northern part of Nigeria would, all things being equal, take us to 16 years of the presidency being in a single region of the country.

That’s always going to be a difficult sell in a country that struggles with disunity fuelled by terrorism and insecurity and requires a level of unity for the nation to thrive. However, in making my choice I decided it would be very difficult to vote for Atiku, a notoriously corrupt being who had become disengaged from the nation he chose to rule by spending more time in Dubai than in Nigeria.

There isn’t much to write about Atiku since he’s been a perennial candidate and has done nothing much to improve in regard to his reputation. One thing I would say that made me consider him as “less worse” is that he’s been a proponent of true federalism – which will dissolve power from the centre and give to the regions. However, as a man that has built a notorious reputation for never keeping an ion of his word, surely, this counts for nothing in practice.

Kwankwaso + NNPP

“Kwankwasiyya!”

Before running mates were chosen, and though I knew the local Kano politics was Kwankwaso’s priority, I assumed he’d pick a running mate that would give him a type of lift in the southern regions. Alas, he forgot to replace the placeholder he had chosen initially. Kwankwaso has somehow been relevant in Kano politics in or out of office. It was by whiskers he failed to put his son-in-law as governor in the last election.

Despite the blunder of his choice of running mate – who has run away, Kwankwaso has put in the work in this election. Visiting many states and LGAs. That momentum has reviewed my assessment of Kwankwas’s impact and I see him being a factor in this election.

A lot of people believe that the election will result in a run-off. But for now, I am not thinking about that.

If I were to summarise my position on this election, I would say: This election is for Tinubu to lose and Peter Obi to win. Atiku for me remains a dark unpredictable horse. Whatever the outcome, Kwankwaso will be the reason why.

#NigeriaDecides2019: For Me, the Choice for President is Clearly, Unclear

**Presidential Contestants:** From Left; Six, Waving alongside Half a Dozen

I’ll try to keep this brief.

Four years have gone by rather quickly.

This time 4 years ago, Dasuki was in Chatham House, justifying to the world the postponement of the 2015 elections using dubious reasons. And back in Nigeria, I was on full blast on social media, telling everyone who cared and didn’t care to listen, that Buhari was the best choice and Jonathan had to go.

To me, it was such a clear choice.

A choice between an inherently corrupt PDP government that was ceding land to Boko Haram like Lagos does to Tinubu and Mr Integrity led APC who promised us CHANGE.

In less than four years, the change don change for my eye.

Unlike in all previous elections where I had been vocal about my position (In ‘93, I remember arguing with Enaholo in Primary 5 why Tofa was actually the answer – my daddy said so) this time has been different. I have been almost mute. And it hasn’t helped that I am on a break from active social media posting.

So this post is for me to publicly record my position and serves as a response to those who somehow think my political position is relevant to them.

Buhari vs. Atiku.

On one hand, we have Buhari – I gave my ‘final’ verdict on the Buhari administration almost 2 years ago. He failed. I am not here to argue if he did better than Jonathan. Once you have Jonathan as your yardstick in governance, you have already failed.

And on the other hand, we have a ~~party~~ crime family in the name of PDP being led by Atiku.

So it is a choice between corruption and economic incompetence coated with faux integrity, and gross corruption coated with pseudo economic brilliance.

What a choice?!

However, gun to head, I will say Buhari should lose even if it means Atiku will become president.

My hope is that, once it becomes the norm to be kicked out if you fail, then maybe great performance in the first term will be the only gamble a sitting president will take.

However, the tarnished image of PDP (how the hell didn’t they change their name?!), the aloofness of their big hitters (neither their living past Presidents nor current governors participated in the campaigns), and the very poor strategic choice in running mate (plan politics with Ndi I~~gbo~~ Lefeledum, really?) combined with the relative sincere rabidness of Buhari’s unpaid followers, plus the rather smart and brute powers behind Buhari, nick it for the incumbent.

Were UK and US not distracted with Brexit and Trump respectively, I would have been bold enough to bet that we would see a runoff. But with the nuisance of Obasanjo and his international friends, one can never tell.

So who am I voting for?

My friends and family bitterly accuse(d) me of making Buhari president. It was not until 2015 that I realized that my vote counted 2 million times spread accordingly as needed. So this time around, and for the first time since I became eligible, I will not be voting. I misplaced my voter’s card and decided not to get another so I will not make a wrong choice for the nation.

So go ahead my good friends, and like our President advised in Ogun State, vote for whoever you want. Your vote is your right, so do with it as you please.

NB:

How about the third faorce? you ask me.

The Presidential election is all about party distribution. Coca Cola level distribution and not Nuli Juice popularity in Lekki and environs.

Of the other candidates though, only Sowore’s AAC has the right foundation to shake things in the future. Perhaps harness the activist constituency duplicitous Labour abandoned a long time ago. We’ll see.

But I must commend the others for sticking their heads out. Ko easy to come out and state you wan to preside over Nigeria and compete for it.

“THERE IS NO PLAN” – A SHORT STORY

On the day after attending Buhari’s inauguration, I reached out to one of my campaign contacts to find out what was going to happen next.

Since the campaign team of which he had an important role had delivered an improbable victory, it was “obvious” that the same team and he would help run the government.

I wanted to have an idea of who was going where. As for me, I just wanted to know where I could channel my one pagers like I had done through the campaign. I had/have no intention in holding office.
My guy was traveling, and since there was no time to seat to chat, he asked that I joined him on the way to the airport.

After a bit of small talk and banter I got straight to the point

“Guy, now that the government has kicked off, we have to move quick. There should be clarity on the milestones to achieve by the first 100 days. So what is the plan, will you be taking X position based on the Y role you played during the campaign. Cos there are some one pagers I wanted to send to……”

“Oo hold on. The plan? Let me tell you what my principal (a current minister) told me”

Then he leaned forward

“THERE IS NO PLAN”

I laughed.

He laughed.

We both laughed.

Obviously, it was a joke. there was definitely a plan. Afterall, 4 years was so short a time and we would be moving quick to deliver the change promised.

It was just that a day after inauguration was too soon to talk about appointments or strategy execution. By next week, people would have settled down and things would be set in motion.

So I thought.

So he thought.

So we thought.

It then took 6 months to get Ministers into their offices. No economic advisers working with the president. Basically, it’s been over a year now and I still do not know the plan of this government I support.

And this was not the plan.

PS: The usual disclaimer. Looking back knowing what things were, and knowing what things are, if the options were Buhari or the continuation of Jonathan’s government, I would still chose Buhari a 1000 times over. Perhaps with a lot less enthusiasm. So no, I do not regret kicking out the last government. I only regret that this government has failed to take advantage of the opportunity to move this country forward.

PPS: My guy has since returned to his business. He still has his people everywhere in this government however, having friends in government was never the idea. Were that the case, there was no need to change government. That’s why outside politics, you should have a livelihood so you can make your decisions based on principle and not on government “stomach infrastructure” pipelines remaining open.

Dear President Buhari, Here’s Pulse From The Streets

Thanks to my pre-election activism, anytime I leave my compound, the gatemen (onye kuzi, we have too) from the adjourning compounds greet me “Sai Baba!”

This has been the status quo EVERY SINGLE time I leave my house. It became tiresome to me because sometimes I just want to continue my train of thought while leaving the house.

At the turn of this year, it continued. This particular old soldier’s whose voice was always loudest would add “oga no worry, things go soon beta”

Yesterday, 3 of them were outside as I stepped out of my gate, as with the norm, I heard the “Sai Baba” chant and as I prepared to raise my two hands to respond “Sai Buhari”, I head the following from the old baba

“Abeg which kain Sai Baba. I don tire! Hungry wan kill person”

I turned and noticed the usual smiling face adorned with a crooked teeth was replaced with a frown. I quickly responded. “Ah Baba, wetin happen? No vex budget don pass things go start to change now”. He kept mumbling and I decided to surrender the 200 naira in my pocket to him.

He thanked me and gave me the equivalent of that polite smile emotion that is used to “die” chat conversations.

Little anecdotes like these let you know the true feelings of those on the streets.

So my dear General, I just thought you should know what’s happening. I still have faith in you and your ability to get this right. And you can be sure of one thing, I’ll always let you know what I truly think and what i see happening. Those “protecting you” from the reality do not mean well for you.

Remember, this will be remembered as the Buhari government. It’s your name on it.

PS: I have the belief that you will ensure justice is done for the victims of the Kaduna Shi ite genocide.

#TheList: One Nigerian Ministry I’d LOVE To See

The list of ~~noisemakers~~ Ministers comes out today. There is ONE Ministry that I think would ensure Nigeria grows aggressively in the next few years.

The Ministry of Regional Development.

This would be made up of 6 Ministers. One in charge of each of the Geopolitical Zone they come from. Basically, NDDC for each of the the zones.

The Federal Government would basically have Super Executive Governors that would intervene directly in each of the regions.

“Soludo, you think, you would be a better Governor of Anambra? Here Take 100 Billion a Year and be the Governor of the South East”.

“Hi there, Fashola, you would have been much better as a Governor of Lagos if not for the interference of the Lion of Bourdillon? Ok, Here, be the Executive Governor of the South West. No fear of Impeachment, PMB does not need to be settled”

SS, NC, NW and most importantly, NE (If i were a betting man, I’ll bet on an MK Ahmed)

The other Ministers (Works, Power etc) can theoretically act as the commissioners for these 6 executive Governors.

You get the drift.

Now let’s wait for #TheList

Like Corbyn, Like Buhari

Before dismissing me as an SEO scavenger due to my choice of title, first understand the double entendre at play.

Inasmuch as the backgrounds of Buhari, Nigeria’s President and Corbyn couldn’t be more different, (soldier vs. activist) they have a lot of likeness and for that, I like the both of them.

For those that are not aware, Jeremy Corbyn was just announced the leader of the Labour party in the United Kingdom and he did so in spite of being a rank 1-200 rank outsider that was consistently pushed back by the establishment.

Thankfully they failed.

So why do I like Corbyn? The same fundamental reason I like Buhari. Consistency over the years. It is such a tragedy that the “hater politicians” that tried every underhand tactics to keep Corby at bay have failed to understand that a vast majority of the people are tired of “typical politicians”

To be honest, I really did not know Corbyn until a little over 3 months ago. my heart warmed up to me immediately after I read the other candidates pushing for “policies that will win power” as against policies that are backed by belief.

As I read more about Corbyn and read more of the embarrassingly hapless interventions by the likes of the war criminal Blair, it was obvious my mind was in the right place. Like with Buhari, they threw the kitchen sink and it made him stronger. It also helped that like with Buhari, Corbyn is a fan of government backed/ public owned institutions and infrastructure.

I actually find it amusing that the pseudo capitalist who scream “free market” run quickly to government when they fail.

Would Corbyn succeed? I do not know. But we need clear alternatives of policies and government and we should try all out.

What I do know though is that were Corbyn PM, the disaster in Syria, Iraq, Libya and co would not have been and this work world would have been a much peaceful place today.

Onward Jeremy, and godspeed!

My Take on Buhari’s First 100 Days.

Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe – Abraham Lincoln

The quote above best summarises what I think of Buhari’s first 100 days. But I’d like to expatiate a bit using an extended analogy that factors in the perception of Nigerians vis-à-vis the typical Nigerian leadership.

I would liken Nigeria to a large vehicle. The President, a mechanic-driver (who repairs the vehicle s/he drives); the passengers, Nigerians, and our a very long journey, our future.

The mechanic-driver has a lot of assistants for navigating, communicating with the passengers, fixing the car etc.

We have a car that has always been in a pretty bad shape making lots of internal noises, lots of scratches and rust on the body. Every 4 years we, the passengers, have had the chance to choose our mechanic-driver. And for the past 16 years, the passengers have kept on choosing the same company to provide the driver.

Typically, when a new driver from this company takes over the wheels, they quickly open the bonnet change the fan-belt (which reduces the noise) spray here and there on the body (they have assistants) and start driving. After a few kilometers, the noise gets worse again and the whole scenario repeats itself. During the journey, the assistants quickly shut up complaining passengers. Even some passengers shut others up. It can be really rowdy!

The passengers got tired and CHANGED the company that provided the mechanic driver and this new guy took charge 100 days ago.

Unlike the other guys though, this one has been doing things from the fundamentals. Instead of quickly jumping in the car and appointing those who will take charge of different departments, he decided to take time and find out what has been happening. Why oil dey always short, why the wheels are always wobbly. Most of the passengers are not used to this. They are getting hot and they need to know they will reach the next stop in time. Those that campaigned for the new mechanic-driver know it is better to spend time finding what is wrong and fixing it from the source. So we have a smoother ride with less stops along the road.

When the mechanic-driver is under the car, it is the job of someone to let them know what is going on. After all, it is not everyone who can see what is going on there.

Well, it’s 100 days gone and the interviews are over. The security department has been filled. He has found out why the fan belt is always cutting, crank shaft get as e be, oil short e.t.c.

Now is prime time!

Quick Notes

The guys that communicate to the passengers need to really step up or be changed. Calling passengers wailing wailers is disgraceful (though I find is hilarious lol)
Oga mechanic-driver should understand passengers like to see a bit if activity going on. It helps calm nerves
In a little over 3 years, it would be ONLY the progress made that would count when choosing a mechanic-driver for another term. Intention and ‘what is almost done’ will not count.
I have total confidence in the capability of oga mechanic-driver. Carry go, my General!

PS: Forgive typos and fill in the gaps if you notice the analogy breaking down anywhere ;). If you liked the post, please click here to tweet it.

Thanks Boro for looking through this post.

Let’s Be Honest, Lagos is NOT Working

Allow me rant a little.

Today it took me about 3 hours to complete the barely 25km journey from Ikeja to Victoria Island.

“Why didn’t you leave earlier? ” would be the typical response. But why the fuck should one leave earlier than 9am for a 12 noon appointment at a place that should not take 30 minutes to get to.

Of course those Nigerians that optimize for the substandard would point out the traffic in other cities like New York without explain that the public transport alternative is available and quite predictable. You have an option. In Lagos, everyone is meted the same punishment.

In London, you go,”we’ll meet at 1 pm”. In Lagos, you go “we’ll meet around 1-2 by God’s grace.” a one hour range needs the intercession on the creator.

The reason for this absolute fuckery that kills hours for millions of Lagosians daily is because of the absolute absence of any resemblance of a city plan that takes into cognizance the need for business districts.

Why I’m doubly pissed is that the opportunity to avert this was as recent as this past decade. The Mainland – Island traffic horror had always been known. As at the year 2000, the area after Oniru towards Epe was practically virgin. But rather than plan for the expansion of the VI – Ajah axis the Lagos State Government was napping, or rather spending billions and a decade focused on creating a business out of tollgates on the less than 15 km of road.

Now we have the whole of Lagos coming to Victoria Island to work at by the same time and leaving at the same time by 4pm. to spend another minimum of 2 hours on the road (as for those living more than 20 km from VI, I sorry for them)

Lagos requires leaving home at 5am to get to work 20 km away, early. Leave home 5 am, get to work before 6am. Leave at 6am, get to work after 9am! And this aplies to those coming to VI from Ikeja or Ajah. The Ajah – VI axis is more ridiculous. Only two lanes on each side and just a single access (Fun anecdote. Once there was a protest on that road because of an accident and there was NO WAY for people living in Ajah to get to work that day. Madness!!!)

A simple development of the shoreline (in black) and creating a new business district (orange rectangle) out it the area around the Lagos Business School would have eased of the pressure on Victoria Island and would have rapidly developed the Epe area as a residential zone which would key into the Lekki Free Trade Zone plan and the 4th mainland Bridge (in red).

Of course someone somewhere would be very excited to explain why the above is not really possible.

If Ambode wants to really solve this, he should live in Ajah for a 3 month period and go to work in Lagos Island form there everyday. Of course with no sirens.

Of course the above would mean politicians prioritizing the needs of citizens.

Heh!

PS: forgive typos and errors. No be that one dey worry me now.

Before We Boycott “These Xenophobic South Africans”

As a result of the mindless Xenophobic attacks by some Black South Africans on their fellow brothers, especially those who are citizens of countries that sacrificed for their freedom, there has been understandable anger.

However, I have seen a lot of this anger being directed towards ALL South Africans. As a Nigerian, I know how unfair it is when I am punished daily as a result of the criminal activities of a very tiny fraction of my fellow citizens.

I know a lot of very decent South Africans who are as outraged and embarrassed as a result of these evil attacks. Any irrational reaction from other countries would make it bad for the good guys. The ignorant xenophobic folks would lose nothing if we target South African companies. As the saying goes, “he that is down fears no fall.”

Some South Africans Protesting Against Xenophobia

Let us be clear on something, the failure of Black South Africa is the failure of the ANC. Not the whites, not the foreigners, and to an extent, not the criminal Afro-Xenophobic wretches who feel subdued even in barbarity.

Millions of South Africans (especially blacks) are in dire need of jobs and education. Rather than double down in fixing the structural issues that leave them frustrated and turn a lot of them babaric, Jacob Zuma spends $30 million renovating his house in the village.

Black Africa is in dire need of effective leadership. Unfortunately, the top two most powerful countries in Sub Saharan Africa have had the worst of leadership for the past have decade at the same time!

When I speak to Nigerians who can process beyond renovated locomotive trains, we agree that Nigeria has a responsibility towards the black world. We are the “most powerful” and most influential black nation and we have not really set the bar high enough. I am hopeful that we will start seeing things begin to change for the better.

As for these Xenophobic attacks, the culprits are clear. Jacob Zuma and the Zulu King Goodwill Zwelithini are clearly responsible. I have no idea how thay can be punished right. As for the tragedy of black South Africa, the ANC as an organization has failed.

Hopefully, things change before they run that nation into the ground.

The future doesn’t look so bright.

Ambode vs Agbaje: My Random ‘Objective’ Musings on #LagosDecides

Unlike in the Presidential Elections, I am not vested in the Lagos Guber race between APC and PDP

For APC Lagos – although the Fashola/Tinubu combo have arguably been the best performers in Nigerian governance, their handling of a couple of things leave a lot to be desired.

For PDP – It’s PDP.

Back to APC Lagos – Fashola’s handling of the unforgivable Toll Gate issue (beating protesters on top of a wicked venture), LASU school fees (insane increase forced down the throat of poor students) and the Lagos Doctor’s strike in 2102 (sacking all Lagos Doctors) stems form a type of arrogance that overconfidence breeds. Over confidence that stems from the belief that you know everything and the people do not determine your fate

For me, the Lekki Toll Gate is personal. I promised myself I would not vote for APC Lagos and renew the vow anytime I queue up at that toll.

As for PDP – PDP is PDP. there is nothing more to say. The impunity exhibited for the past 16 years and the evil meted out to Nigerians has resulted in a permanent brand damage.

All PDP candidates are merely unfortunate carriers of that legacy. Just like Lawrence Anini’s cousins and relatives (that guy single-handedly retired a surname sha!)

Looking at the candidates.

Ambode – Starting with the pluses. From the look of things, Ambode has the requisite administrative experience needed to govern a complex state like Lagos. And on the surface, he deserves a clean chance and should not be punished for the “sins” of Fashola.

But on the other side, since he wants the pros of Fashola’s administration to rub of on him, at the very least, he should be questioned on the cons.

This is where Ambode has not done so well. He has not shown in any way how he will be different from the previous administration. He is as defensive on obvious “mistakes” by the previous administration as the owner of these “mistakes”. So for instance, on the toll gate issue, he tows the arrogant and condescending line of “If you do not support the tollgate exactly as we want it (opaque and inhuman) then you do not support or understand how public-private partnership works.

Fashola can get away with that as he is not running for reelection. Ambode has now forced himself to be weighted with sins of another man.

Another minus for Ambode is that although he started to campaign over a year ago, he does not seem confident enough. I hardly remember him being on the campaign trail alone. It is either Fashola and, or Buhari and, or Tinubu and, or Osibanjo and Ambode at X rally. For a man who needs to prove independence, that has not been a plus. This of course brings me to Oba Akiolu who said

“no one knows how I CHOOSE Ambode to be Governor”

No need for elections then.

The rantings of Akiolu threatening the Igbos was a chance for Ambode to SHOW independence. Such chances to not come up often. All we saw were press releases. The fact that people are no longer shouting about it does not mean it has not had a permanent impact on the mind of the electorate.

In finality, for good and for bad, we do not know what Ambode is. Buhari is strict, Agbaje is eloquent, Amobode is …..?

For a campaign that has lasted this long, I do not know what to fill in that blank. I know he has nice watches though.

Agbaje – The good thing about Agbaje is he sounds right for the job. Appearance, words, content, etc. His campaign has been top notch. A little dirty has existed but it has been relatively ok. You cannot really avoid dirty if you are in the proximity of Aye Dee and Ohimai (Mr Fix Nigeria).

If we are to be honest, if Agbaje had the APC machinery, we would have been preparing for May 29 by now in Lagos. But he doesn’t. He is with the PDP.

I’ll give it to Agbaje, he has tried to show independence, appeared on TV and rallies as the top dawg. etc. However, running a state is not a one man show. Who will be the empowered if he wins.

Whereas, APC has consistently shown governance and competence especially in the South West, good governance in PDP is an exception. Who are Agbaje’s squad members?

Another more worrying aspect is that Agbaje’s well of public sector and management experience is at best one bucket full. He began “his thing” immediately after he graduated from University. His main thing has not really grown beyond one shop. Basically, the question is, isn’t going from a one man business to running Lagos a leap?

His membership of boards is not the same as experience. Daddy’s investments handed down cannot substitute for the bureaucratic experience and knowledge needed to move this city sate called Lagos, forward.

Where I Sorta Stand

I have things to do this morning so let me quickly conclude.

Know that I am NOT voting any on the candidates.

Who do I think will win tomorrow? I don’t know. But if push comes to shove, I sentimentally and kinda objectively will prefer Ambode to win because

He belongs to the party of my General.
A lot of my comrades whose judgement I trust are working with him
Alignment in policy (power, social welfare etc) at both Federal and Lagos State level will be good for the state.

But this is my prediction

Assuming

The result of last elections was based of the true mind of the people and not Jonathan’s billions
The Yoruba’s in Lagos see a PDP victory as losing and betraying their Oba and marshal a massive turnout in order to make a statement for their kingdom.
The Igbos are still relaxing home for Easter and do not turn out enmass to show rebellion.

Ambode will win. But barely. There is a high chance for an upset though.

Some things to consider.

The race was already tight enough two weeks ago. Then again in 2011, PDP won the state hands down for the presidential and the result had no reflection in the guber election. But then again, Fashola had personal recognition just like Jimi has.

Too many people want to break the hold of Tinubu in Lagos and SW. And this is not limited to those outside his party. Internal sabotage is the worst kind of sabotage.

Tinubu and APC have a 16 year old structure in Lagos. That cannot be wiped overnight especially as Fashola was no Jonathan

A Buhari victory has given a negotiation upper-hand for Tinubu. He can make more feasible.promises.

Damn, this is going to be interesting. may the best man win!

PS: Forgive typos, etc.